International Crisis Group, 15 November 2024

Concerns about fraud in Mozambique’s general elections in October have morphed into a nationwide movement protesting Frelimo, which has governed the country since independence. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains why Mozambicans are unhappy with the ruling party.

What’s happening?

Mozambique is on a knife’s edge. Already beset by a festering jihadist insurgency, the country is now contending with the violent aftermath of a disputed election. The 9 October presidential vote pitted Frente de Libertaçao de Moçambique (Frelimo) candidate Daniel Chapo, who was anointed in May to succeed outgoing President Felipe Nyusi, against pastor and former radio host Venâncio Mondlane, a 50-year-old newcomer to politics who made an unsuccessful bid to become mayor of the capital Maputo in 2023.

Mondlane ran as an independent anti-establishment candidate with the support of a small party founded by Frelimo defectors, Partido Optimista pelo Desenvolvimento de Moçambique (Podemos). Meanwhile, the country’s main opposition party Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo), which fought a civil war with Frelimo between 1977 and 1992, entered the elections weak and divided.

The next day, Mondlane declared victory on the grounds that a partial parallel count conducted by his team gave him a majority of votes, even if he provided little evidence to substantiate his claim. The attorney general warned in response that Mondlane should refrain from inciting unrest.

Flouting this injunction, Mondlane on 16 October called on his supporters, including on social media where he has hundreds of thousands of followers, to join protests and stage general strikes against the handling of the elections, capitalising on credible allegations from civil society groups and local and foreign observers that the process had been rife with irregularities and fraud.

Then, late on 18 October, unknown gunmen murdered Mondlane’s lawyer, Elvino Dias, who was preparing a legal challenge to the election results, and Paulo Guambe, a Podemos parliamentary candidate, as the two men travelled together in a car in Maputo. The brazen attack sent shock waves through Mozambique and drew worldwide condemnation, including from UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the U.S. and the European Union.

A first nationwide protest, on 21 October, was eventually dispersed by heavily armed security personnel who fired live ammunition at demonstrators in several cities and tear gas canisters at journalists interviewing Mondlane in Maputo. The candidate subsequently fled to a secret hideout, possibly in neighbouring South Africa, from where he now regularly livestreams talks to his Facebook followers.

Three days later, and to no one’s surprise, the official election results proclaimed Chapo the winner with 71 per cent of the vote with Mondlane standing at 20 per cent. Frelimo also increased its absolute majority in parliament to 195 of 250 seats and retained all eleven provincial governor positions.

Since the double assassination and the announcement that Chapo will be Mozambique’s next president, frustrations among Mondlane’s supporters with Frelimo’s rule have morphed into popular outcry against Frelimo’s rule, on a scale unprecedented in the country’s recent history. Several opposition parties – other than Podemos – have joined Mondlane’s calls to protest.

Demonstrations have taken place in most provinces, with Maputo, Nampula and Zambezia among the hotspots. Gatherings in the capital have drawn thousands and paralysed the city, including the port, though police have prevented large crowds from forming. Acts of vandalism have also been reported, with protesters destroying four Frelimo party offices across the country and a police station in Nampula.

On 7 November, the unrest reached a high point when Mondlane encouraged his supporters to march on Maputo. Protesters and security forces engaged in running battles throughout the day, leaving at least five people dead. South Africa temporarily closed its main land border with Mozambique on the same day as Mozambican protesters attempted to cross, with South African police firing rubber bullets in a bid to push them back.

The government has also suspended mobile internet on several occasions. On 12 November, police chief Bernardino Rafael called the protest movement “urban terrorism” with “the clear intention of altering the democratically established Mozambican constitutional order”. The same day, the attorney general announced 208 proceedings had been launched against the “moral and material” perpetrators of violence, likely including Mondlane.

Overall, civil society groups estimate that close to 50 people have been killed in clashes with police, while lawyers say they have helped secure the release over 2,700 protesters from unlawful detention. Several organisations have pointed to the harmful impact of the demonstrations on the economy, with most workers staying at home on protest days, either because they are answering Mondlane’s call to strike or for fear of the violence they may encounter on their way to work. Mondlane has called for more protests until 15 November, after which he says there should be a “pause”.

How did Mozambique get here?

Frelimo has governed Mozambique since it won independence from Portugal in 1975, but the party has lost a great deal of public support in recent years. Government officials have often been linked to graft, notably in the infamous $2 billion hidden debt affair known as the “tuna bond scandal”, which dried up most foreign investment and led to a sharp depreciation of the national currency, the metical, in 2016. Despite huge hydrocarbon resources, Mozambique is one of the least developed countries in the world, ranking 183 of 193 nations on the UN Human Development Index.

It has also experienced deadly cyclones in recent years that have laid waste to the port city of Beira and repeatedly inundated crops belonging to subsistence farmers. Frustration with the ruling party’s grip on the state apparatus has piled up among a populace demanding more democratic space, accountable government and better prospects for the future. This sentiment is particularly intense among young people living in towns who are active on social media and make up the core of Mondlane’s support base.

In addition, Mozambique is grappling with an Islamic State-linked insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado that a succession of foreign military operations – including mercenaries from Russia and South Africa – has so far failed to quell. Maputo has now pinned its hopes for pacifying the area on some 5,000 Rwandan soldiers, who aside from trying to extinguish the insurgency are also charged with protecting a multi-billion dollar gas project on the Afungi peninsula that TotalEnergies and other foreign companies are struggling to complete because of insecurity in the area.

Mistrust of the government is rife. Most elections since the introduction of multi-party democracy in 1994 have been tainted by accusations of fraud. The 2023 municipal elections were a telling example, with Frelimo’s supposed landslide, in which it won 64 of 65 municipalities, sparking accusations of vote rigging. Evidence of wrongdoing prompted several local courts to invalidate the results and order a rerun, with the Constitutional Council eventually handing Renamo four municipalities.

Voting day in October’s presidential election had at first unfolded peacefully, but reports of fraud were quick to emerge. Local and international observers alike questioned the integrity of the polls well before the official results were announced, pointing to instances of ballot stuffing, voter intimidation and vote buying.

For example, the European Union’s electoral observation mission noted “unjustified alteration of election results at polling station and district level”. A poor turnout, matching the country’s all-time low of 43 per cent, underscored a general lack of public trust in the electoral process.

While Mondlane first called for street protests as a way to repudiate electoral fraud, demonstrations quickly transformed into a broader show of dissatisfaction with Frelimo’s rule. The main sources of public disaffection, which had featured heavily in Mondlane’s campaign, range from anger over the lack of democratic space to frustration with police brutality, corruption and poverty. The assassinations of Dias and Guambe, the latest in a long list of killings of high-profile figures in Mozambique, also stoked popular ire.

Where are the protests likely to go from here?

Despite Frelimo’s reputation for violating democratic and electoral norms, the 2024 campaign had begun with something of a surprise when the party named 47-year-old Chapo as its presidential candidate. Previously governor of the central Inhambane province, Chapo is thought to understand the need to open democratic space and undertake meaningful reform. But that does not mean that the ruling party is ready to loosen its grip just yet, much less to relinquish power.

Incumbent President Nyusi, who will remain the party’s secretary-general until at least 2027, is backed by a hardline faction within Frelimo composed of liberation-era generals with business interests they intend to preserve at all costs. The selection of a young candidate with little experience in national politics is reportedly a compromise hammered out as a result of an internal power struggle rather than the reflection of a genuine desire to change tack.

Neither Mondlane nor the government now seems ready to back down, despite the deadly nature of the protests. Mondlane has declared that he is open to speaking with the government, but he maintains that protests will continue until he is proclaimed the winner of the presidential election and until the government agrees to reforms such as anti-corruption measures and provision of affordable health care.

Mondlane likely calculates that continued paralysis of the country’s main cities will force the government’s hand, while he would lose face, and momentum, if he accepts anything short of his demands. While he calls for peaceful demonstrations, he peppers his speeches with combative words like “revolution” as well as stressing the need to “end the regime” and for “people to take power”.

The government, meanwhile, is playing the long game. Nyusi and other officials have repeatedly called for calm and warned that fresh unrest will be met by force. The government likely figures that the protests will peter out eventually in the face of economic hardship or more police brutality. Still, Chapo has shown his pragmatic side by saying he may consider dialogue after the Constitutional Council has confirmed the election results, a process that traditionally takes a few weeks.

What are the prospects of de-escalation?

Calls for de-escalation and for dialogue have come from various quarters. Catholic bishops in the influential Episcopal Conference of Mozambique have criticised the conduct of the elections and suggested that politicians consider forming a government of national unity. At the regional level, the African Union condemned the assassinations of Dias and Guamb and called for calm. Earlier, in contrast with the EU and others, the AU’s election observation team described the polls as “peaceful” and in line with Mozambican electoral laws.

Foreign partners that support the government with development aid and military assistance, notably the EU and the U.S., have called for restraint. On 2 November, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell insisted on the need for political dialogue.

To limit the risk of more deadly confrontation, all sides should pull back from the brink. Security forces should guarantee protesters’ rights to demonstrate peacefully and respond with moderation if faced with violence or vandalism. Chapo and Mondlane should follow through on their declarations that they are open to dialogue and explore the possibility of de-escalation talks. While the two sides may see little ground for compromise, intransigence has risks for both sides.

Mondlane’s supporters will eventually tire and may already need respite, judging by his desire to pause the protests. The grievances being voiced on Mozambique’s streets, meanwhile, are unlikely to go away and could be the harbinger of more anti-government protests in the future.

Discussions should aim first and foremost at scaling down police brutality and harassment of opposition supporters. An important concession from the government would be to give guarantees to Mondlane that he can safely return to Mozambique and will not be arrested if he pursues his political work.

Mozambican authorities should pledge to provide regular updates on the investigation into the assassination of Dias and Guambe. They should also follow through on their commitment to holding the perpetrators of the attack to account. Investigations into the post-electoral violence should be fair, not driven by partisan political motives.

While these steps would help calm the animosity between the two sides, agreement on an outcome to the election dispute remains farther from reach. Most senior figures in Frelimo will be unwilling to accept Mondlane as an interlocutor in negotiations without assurances that he is prepared to retract his demand to be recognised as the country’s rightful president. Even so, opposition forces should insist on the need to negotiate reforms to the political system to make it more representative and ensure a greater diversity of voices. Many Mozambicans are convinced that changes in the way the country is governed will be needed to achieve the social and economic improvements they long for. The regional body Southern African Development Community, which will hold an extraordinary summit on 16 November, notably to discuss the situation in Mozambique, should also push for de-escalation.

Although there seems to be little prospect of agreement between the two sides as to the election result, a number of steps could help make the poll more transparent. Electoral authorities should publish the disaggregated results of the election by polling stations. This measure would not only be a sign of good-will on the part of electoral institutions, but it would also allow observers to check the veracity of an array of fraud allegations surrounding the tabulation process. Simultaneously, Mondlane should provide more details about the methodology he allegedly used to reach the conclusion that he won the election, to help the public and observers to assess his claim’s credibility. As Mozambique grapples with a wave of unrest, clear signals of moderation and transparency from both sides could go some way to restoring calm.

Disclaimer

The opinion expressed in this paper is that of the author and does not necessarily reflect that of CEMAS Board.