Caught in the crossfire: Israel's war on Lebanon causing mass displacement across the Middle East and beyond
By Anjana Sankar, The Nayional, 18 November 2024
As Israel's war spreads beyond Gaza's borders, neighbouring Lebanon finds itself - once again - at the centre of a mass displacement crisis.
The Lebanese people, already reeling from economic collapse, political instability, and simmering sectarian tension, are now spilling over the border into Syria, Iraq and Turkey as they flee Israeli bombs.
With more than a million people displaced so far and more forced to flee each day, Lebanon’s strained resources have been stretched to the breaking point, leaving the government and aid organisations scrambling to provide for basic needs like shelter and food.
This crisis is reshaping the region’s social and economic landscape, with significant implications for neighbouring countries and beyond.
Lebanon's wave of displacement
Over the past decade, millions of people across the Middle East have been forced from their homes by conflict, economic hardship and political upheaval.
Israel's most recent attacks on Lebanon, which it says are aimed at rooting out Hezbollah, have exacerbated the Mediterranean country's long-standing migration issues. More than 1.3 million people — including Lebanese citizens, Syrian refugees and migrant workers — have been forced to abandon their homes due to Israeli bombings that have hit everywhere from southern Lebanon and eastern Bekaa to Beirut.
The situation has left local governments, non-governmental organisations and the Lebanese populace grappling with the immediate challenges of housing, food and health care for the displaced.
“The Lebanese state does not have the capacity or the infrastructural means to deal with internal displacement at such a scale and magnitude,” Tamirace Fakhoury, associate professor of international politics and conflict at Fletcher University, told The National.
With Lebanon still dealing with the aftermath of the 2020 Beirut blast, ongoing financial crisis and fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, many Lebanese are concerned about the future. “Citizens are extremely tired and disillusioned,” Ms Fakhoury said.
She said refugee-hosting fatigue in Lebanon has set in and anti-refugee rhetoric has become much stronger than a few years ago.
“It is thus likely that the impact of this wave of displacement will be multidimensional, affecting the livelihoods of both citizens and displaced individuals residing in Lebanon from various social, economic and policy angles.”
Where are people fleeing?
The majority of people displaced by the war in Lebanon - about 872,808 - are moving within the national borders, fleeing from the heavily bombarded south and Bekaa Valley in the east towards the north. While government-operated schools and shelters have offered temporary refuge to roughly 191,759 people, thousands more are crammed into expensive hotels, informal shelters or tented encampments hastily set up in public spaces.
For refugees and migrant workers without access to shelters, conditions are particularly bleak. According to the UN, as of October, 1,059 government-assigned collective shelters are operating at capacity. Many of those left out are camping on the corniche, sidewalks and parks, their living conditions worsened by Lebanon’s economic downturn.
According to Nadim Houry, executive director of independent think tank Arab Reform Initiative, it is too early to predict what future migration patterns will be.
“Majority of the displaced would want to come back home at the earliest opportunity,” Mr Houry told The National.
“One precedent we have is the 2006 displacement of Lebanese, where people returned rather quickly. This time around, the question is whether Hezbollah will have enough money to rebuild.
“As of now, we don’t know what the end game in Lebanon is. But it is going to be harsher economically. Many areas are in shambles.”
Creating access to longer-term shelters, education and health care for the displaced will be a challenge. The duration and scale of this crisis dwarf previous wars, making “lack of political will” and “international donor fatigue” a challenge, Mr Houry said.
Elena Fiddian-Qasmiyeh, professor of Migration and Refugee Studies at University College London (UCL), told The National most Lebanese will likely remain internally displaced in the short term and will make a decision to move only if they believe they can build a “secure and dignified future" for themselves and their families.
“Factors shaping decisions to leave include a lack of access to rights and protection, insecure livelihoods among others,” she said.
Citizens will also consider the potential of better long-term reception, rights and opportunities in other nations, which will also influence their decision to leave or stay.
Risking a return to Syria
About 440,000 people have fled to Syria - through official channels - since the war on Lebanon escalated in September, according to the Syrian Arab Red Crescent.
So dangerous is the situation on the ground that 71 per cent of them are Syrians who had previously escaped war in their own country to seek safety in Lebanon. The remaining 29 per cent are Lebanese.
The crisis highlights the complexities of cross-border displacement in the region as refugees are forced to return to the very places they once escaped, facing an unstable post-war landscape and potential punishment.
It is the ultimate manifestation of their desperation, one refugee said.
“This [return] is because of our lack of choice. We are choosing life, full of risks,” Salam, a Syrian refugee who gave only his first name, told The National.
He said staying in Beirut with his three children meant expecting death at any moment. “Bombs are falling everywhere. Residential apartments are destroyed. There is no safe place," asked the desperate father, who is currently staying in a shelter in rural Damascus.
“Who would have thought we would have to seek safety in Syria?”
Many returnees are scared to settle in regime-held areas for fear of repercussions. A representative for the International Organisation told The National that an estimated 2,000 Syrians have travelled to north-west Syria, particularly from Beirut and surrounding areas, to avoid arrest in government-controlled territories.
Human Rights Watch said Syrians fleeing violence in Lebanon face risks of repression and persecution by the Syrian government on return, including enforced disappearance, torture and death in detention.
The rights group said it had documented four arrests of people returning since September, with other groups, including the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), reporting dozens more.
“Syrians fleeing violence in Lebanon are being compelled to return to Syria, even as Syria remains unfit for safe or dignified returns,” said Adam Coogle, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.
The journey into Syria is a dangerous one. An Israeli air strike in October on the main border crossing between both countries forced thousands of people to abandon their cars and cross on foot.
Most are sheltering in centres run by UNHCR in Damascus, Homs, Hama, Idlib, Tartous and Latakia governorates.
The UN and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent have established about 25 hosting centres in Damascus and other regions, with the capacity to house 10,000 people. However, these facilities are already stretched, able to provide only basic necessities.
“This influx of displaced people is a crisis within a crisis,” said Angelita Caredda, Middle East and North Africa regional director for the Norwegian Refugee Council.
“Syria is already on its knees after 13 years of conflict. The mass displacement from Lebanon comes at a time when the aid response already cannot keep pace with existing needs."
Iraq's open-door policy
Refugees from Lebanon are also spilling into Iraq, another nation still grappling with post-war instability and sectarian tension.
About 28,350 Lebanese citizens have sought shelter in Iraq since the escalation of hostilities, according to a report from the UNHCR on November 4.
Of those, about 15,355 people entered through Al Qaim border crossing with Syria, where a field hospital was set up, while the remainder arrived on international flights to Baghdad and Najaf.
“Their numbers are increasing day after day,” Ahmed Abdul Rahman, director of the Crisis Control Department at the Iraqi Red Crescent, told The National. “The daily average has increased this week to around 750 individuals, around 600 of them coming through Al Qaim border crossing. Until now, things are under control."
More than 50 per cent of the refugees are children - most of them under 15 years old - followed by the elderly and women, he said.
The influx has prompted Iraq’s Shiite leadership to extend humanitarian aid, offering food and shelter in the cities of Karbala and Najaf. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani directed that Lebanese arrivals be referred to as “guests” rather than “refugees".
Some local officials are advocating temporary employment opportunities for the new arrivals, though this has sparked debate among Iraqis who face their own economic challenges.
Finding hope in Turkey
Airlines began suspending flights to and from Lebanon as early as July but most - excluding national carrier Middle East Airlines - stopped by September, when attacks escalated.
Prices for flights shot up as demand increased and supply dropped.
Turkey is one of the few countries that Lebanese passport holders can enter without a visa for a period of up to 90 days, making it an ideal destination for people fleeing the war.
A political source told The National there are about 3,000 Lebanese in Turkey, which serves as a major transit hub for citizens of Middle Eastern countries. Turkey’s migration management authority did not respond to a request for comment.
It is not known how many Lebanese citizens have fled to Turkey since the escalation of violence. However, the cost of accommodation in Turkey’s largest city appears to be a barrier for Lebanese who have.
In Facebook groups, Lebanese citizens have appealed for help to find accommodation in Istanbul, citing budgets limited by the sky-high prices of flights out of Lebanon and the country’s economic crisis. Other users have responded to their posts, saying it would be a struggle to find anything for less than 20,000 Turkish liras, and that Turkish cities other than Istanbul, or even neighbouring Georgia, might be more affordable options.
On October 9, Turkey evacuated from Beirut nearly 1,000 Turkish citizens and their immediate relatives by naval ship. Last week, about 315 people alighted in the Turkish Mediterranean port of Mersin after leaving the Lebanese city of Tripoli by sea, Turkish media reported. Most were citizens of European countries and continued their journeys home via Turkey.
With Israel threatening to bomb the Beirut airport, many people also took ships to Turkey, with some journeys lasting up to 12 hours.
Muammar Ahmed, from Bekaa Valley, said he had travelled on a cargo ship that had been converted to a passenger ship. “My family’s safety is what matters,” he told The National.
Mr Ahmed is currently living in Turkey in a rented apartment but is worried about his extended family that is displaced in Lebanon.
“They are living in shelters. Our homes are destroyed and we do not know what our future is.”
Potential implications for Europe
Prolonged violence in Lebanon also risks spurring another migration crisis across Europe, some experts say.
Ms Fiddian-Qasmiyeh said that, in the absence of sustainable and safe living conditions in Lebanon, and without humanitarian corridors, some people may see no other option than to try to leave the country by boat.
But she thinks only a minority will try to seek asylum in Europe because of the risks and high costs.
“Even reaching the port of Tripoli in northern Lebanon is a very dangerous and expensive journey at the moment, let alone the risks of boat journeys in treacherous conditions which so frequently lead to people losing their lives,” Ms Fiddian-Qasmiyeh said.
In recent years, the European Union (EU) has invested in border security and worked with Turkey and Lebanon to prevent migrants from reaching its shores. However, the scale of Lebanon’s displacement crisis is testing these efforts, with analysts predicting that, if the crisis continues, Europe could see an increase in asylum seekers arriving through Mediterranean routes.
“In the broader context of an extremely volatile Middle East, this will heap pressure on to Europe," Barah Mikail, associate professor at IE University in Spain, wrote in academic journal The Conversation. “As the region’s instability deepens, European states can expect an additional number of migrants, and their claims for asylum, to reach them via countries like Greece or Italy, both located on the front lines of migration routes."
But with anti-immigrant rhetoric on the rise across Europe, this potential influx poses a social and political challenge for European states as they face their own economic pressures and cultural divides.
The migration package deal signed between the EU and Lebanon, worth nearly €1 billion, is aimed at enhancing Beirut's ability to manage its borders. However, according to Ms Fakhoury, the deal is “disconnected from addressing the root causes of displacement rather than seeking to stem migration from a transactional perspective".
Disclaimer
The opinion expressed in this paper is that of the author and does not necessarily reflect that of CEMAS Board.
