Journalists in Gaza have shown us the truth & paid with their lives

Journalists in Gaza have shown us the truth & paid with their lives

By Afroze Fatima Zaidi, The New Arab

For over 14 months Palestinian journalists have been ignored & undermined despite the deadly work they do to inform us of Israel’s crimes, writes Afroze Zaidi.

In the past fourteen months, Israel has killed a reported 196 journalists as part of its genocide in Gaza. On 16 December, the US-based Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) gave a conservative death toll of 133 journalists while condemning Israel’s impunity amid the rising number being murdered in Gaza.

CPJ reported that at least four journalists have been killed by Israel in the past week alone: Ahmed Al-Louh, Mohammed Balousha, Mohammed Al-Qrinawi and Iman Al-Shanti. They all appear to have been targeted by Israel through direct strikes. In the case of Al-Qrinawi and Al-Shanti, their families were also slaughtered along with them.

These are only some of the latest reported incidents of Israel’s deliberate targeting of journalists. In the case of Mohammed Balousha, it hardly seems a coincidence that he was the one who broke the story about bodies of premature babies left to decompose in Gaza’s Al-Nasr hospital. After shooting and injuring him exactly one year ago, Israeli forces have now succeeded in killing him.

Palestinian-American journalist Mariam Barghouti, while reporting Al-Louh’s killing on Twitter/X, noted: “Every 50 hours a journalist is killed in Gaza”. Meanwhile CPJ added that journalists in the north of Gaza “are facing catastrophic conditions, saying ethnic cleansing is happening in a news void in northern Gaza.”

There’s little question that one of the main reasons for us having a record of the atrocities Israel has committed in Gaza is the reporting of local journalists. While some of them were able to flee, others such as Hossam Shbat, Hind Khoudary and Bisan Owda have stayed behind to continue vital reporting on the ground.

So when Foreign Secretary David Lammy dared to remark at the end of November that “there are no journalists in Gaza”, this reflected at least two things. Firstly, in the interests of Western-backed imperialism, the suffering and literal genocide of indigenous groups are actively erased. Second, these imperialist forces don’t consider Palestinians to be reliable sources and reporters of their own stories.

Without a doubt, this silencing and erasure further compounds the injustice experienced by Palestinians amidst their ongoing genocide. Apart from those killed, at least 49 journalists have been reportedly injured, and two are missing. A further 75 have been illegally detained by Israel.

How heart-breaking it must be to be a journalist in Gaza, not only witnessing the genocide of your people and documenting it in vain, but also experiencing the dehumanisation as a Palestinian which completely erases both your suffering and your journalistic contribution.

It is utterly shameful that, in the midst of this, journalists in the West, especially from mainstream outlets, have expressed little to no support towards their colleagues in Gaza. At best, they have stood idly by without making any show of solidarity. At worst, they have actively enabled Israel’s genocidal agenda.

Historian Assal Rad is among those who have extensively documented the use of passive voice by mainstream Western media outlets such as the New York Times, CNN, BBC and Associated Press. The BBC has faced criticism from its own staff for its clear pro-Israel bias and its policy of prioritising Israel’s right to defend itself.

Within this context, it’s no wonder, then, that Israel has carried out its targeted campaign against journalists in Gaza - as well as healthcare and aid workers - with impunity. Because Israel is well aware that Western governments and media are standing by, willing and eager to erase and minimise its crimes.

What else would explain the silence of Western politicians and media on Israel’s targeting of journalists in particular? As Amnesty International Australia gave its Human Rights Defender Award to journalists from Gaza, the news barely appears to have been reported by mainstream media. Similarly, with at least 133 journalists now confirmed dead in Gaza, many of them deliberately targeted while wearing press vests, it’s been difficult to find a mainstream outlet that has considered this newsworthy.

Journalism - real, independent journalism, that is - plays a key function in democratic accountability. So by erasing the contributions and sacrifices of journalists in Gaza, Western politicians and media outlets are actively hindering accountability for Israel and ensuring its impunity. While rumours of a ceasefire circulate, people continue to suffer under constant threat of bombardment, starvation, and little to no medical aid.

Meanwhile, for supporters of the Palestinian people, it’s terrifying to see updates from Bisan, Hossam, Hind, and other journalists and wonder if they will survive to see another day, or if any given post might be their last. In the midst of this, it’s imperative that journalists of conscience are highlighting their struggles, amplifying their stories, and doing what they can to hold Israel accountable.

One thing is for sure: regardless of the best efforts of those in power to erase the genocide in Gaza in general and Israel’s silencing of journalists in particular, we are bearing witness. We are keeping records. The day will come when no amount of gaslighting will be enough to save the Israeli occupation. And it will be thanks, in no small part, to the literal blood, sweat, and tears of journalists in Gaza.

Author

Afroze Fatima Zaidi is a writer, editor and journalist. She has a background in academia and writing for online platforms.

Snapshots: Palestinian journalists capture life under bombardment in Gaza

By Mohammed Zaanoun: Photojournalist based in Gaza
Maha Hussaini: Award-winning journalist and human rights activist based in Gaza
Mohamed Soulaimane: Freelance journalist based in Gaza, writing under a pseudonym for safety given the security situation

The New Humanitarian, 27 February 2024

Despite the risks, the journalists continue to try to keep the spotlight on the suffering of Palestinian civilians.

GAZA

Like everyone now in the Gaza Strip, photojournalist Mohammed Zaanoun, journalist Maha Hussaini, and journalist Mohamed Soulaimane have been living breath by breath, in fear of what might fall from the sky, but they continue to send photographs and video and audio clips to keep the spotlight on what people there are experiencing. Here is their latest dispatch:

27 February 2024 - ‘People are collapsing in the streets due to starvation’

Back in December, a group of UN-backed international experts warned that there was a risk of famine in Gaza, with 90% of the population facing acute levels of food insecurity. Now, young children have reportedly begun to die due to malnutrition. Last month, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to enable the provision of humanitarian assistance to the enclave, which has been under total Israeli siege since 7 October. Since the order, however, the already limited amount of aid entering the enclave has dropped by half. As journalist Maha Hussaini reports, the situation is worst in the north, where hundreds of thousands of people who stayed behind after Israel’s evacuation orders in October are on the brink of starvation.

Back in May 2023, The New Humanitarian began working with Mohammed Zaanoun on a special project to explore what daily life looked like in Gaza. Media coverage then was sporadic, even though the impacts of decades of occupation and the effects of war were constants.

Everything changed overnight on 7 October, after a raid into Israel by Hamas gunmen left around 1,200 people dead, most of them civilians who were killed deliberately, according to the Israeli authorities. Hamas, the political and militant group that governs the Gaza Strip, also took around 240 hostages back into the coastal enclave. An estimated 134 remain in captivity, some of whom are believed to have died.

Gaza has faced nearly four months of intense Israeli bombardment since. A total siege has almost entirely cut off water and electricity and blocked the entry of food, fuel, and medical supplies. And a ground invasion has seen Israeli forces take control over most of northern Gaza and push into the south. Only a trickle of humanitarian aid has made it into the enclave. The population of around 2.3 million people – an estimated 1.7 million of whom have been displaced from their homes – is facing crisis levels of food insecurity, with the potential for famine looming, according to the World Food Programme.

More than 30,000 people – including at least 12,300 children – have been killed by Israel’s military operations as of 27 February, according to the health ministry in Gaza.

The level of death and destruction – as well as rhetoric from Israeli officials – prompted South Africa to file a case in the International Court of Justice, the UN’s top court, accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. In an interim ruling on 16 January, it found “at least some” of South Africa’s allegations to be “plausible”.

At least 88 Palestinian journalists have been killed in Gaza since 7 October. Amid the extreme level of violence and desperate humanitarian conditions, reporting from the enclave has become increasingly difficult and dangerous. To keep a spotlight on what is happening, we have supplemented Zaanoun’s dispatches with reports from Hussaini and Soulaimane.

To view Zaanoun’s Snapshots from before 7 October, click here, and find more of Hussaini, Zaanoun, and Soulaimane’s recent dispatches below:

20 February 2024 - ‘How much longer will we survive this?’

With an Israeli ground invasion of Rafah looming, some displaced people who sought shelter in the southernmost region of Gaza are now packing their few belongings and heading back north. Palestinian journalist Mohamed Soulaimane – who has been reporting from Gaza for The New Humanitarian since 7 October – sent this dispatch about the dire humanitarian conditions people are facing in Rafah and the ever-elusive search for safety. Around 1.4 million people are crammed into Rafah, more than four times the number living there before 7 October. Many are sheltering in makeshift tents as humanitarian organisations struggle to meet even their basic needs. World leaders and NGOs are warning that an Israeli ground invasion would lead to mass casualties and bring an end to even the limited aid operations currently taking place. But with ongoing hostilities and widespread destruction in all of Gaza, there’s nowhere else for people to go. As one mother Soulaimane spoke to said: “I have no place to take my children, other than to jump in the sea.”

2 February 2024 - ‘The attacks are indiscriminate’

Hussaini has been forcibly displaced for a second time by Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip. In November, she wrote about how the concept of “home” was already becoming a distant memory, after she was forced to flee her apartment in Gaza City – where she had lived for 17 years – to seek safety in the central area of the enclave. Now, with Israel’s ground invasion approaching her place of refuge, she’s been forced to flee again to southern Gaza, where over one million people have been packed into an area that used to have a population of around 280,000. But even in the south of Gaza, “the situation is still unsafe”, Hussaini says.

9 January 2024 – Journalists killed near the Rafah border

An Israeli airstrike on 7 January that killed journalists Hamza al-Dahdouh and Mustafa Thuraya while they were on assignment – and severely injured a third journalist – is putting a renewed spotlight on the deadly toll of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza on Palestinian media workers. At least 72 Palestinian journalists have been killed since the campaign began on 7 October, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. Al-Dahdouh is the son of veteran Al-Jazeera correspondent Wael al-Dahdouh, a familiar face to millions across the Middle East. Wael al-Dahdouh’s wife, two of his other children, and his grandchild were killed in an Israeli airstrike in October. For a first-person look at the impact of the killing of journalists, read: What it’s like being a journalist in Gaza.

18 December 2023 - Aid shortages in Egyptian border camp

As more and more of the roughly 2.3 million people living in the Gaza Strip – some 85% of whom have now been displaced by the bombardment and Israeli ground invasion – have been driven south towards the Egyptian border, Zaanoun’s focus this week is on a refugee camp of 70,000 people that has now formed at Tal al-Sultan, near Rafah. As the winter rains and cold temperatures hit, he says children don’t have blankets, not to mention shortages of food, water, sewage systems, and medical supplies. “Unfortunately, there are no big international [aid] organisations to support families in these areas,” he says.

5 December 2023 - ‘For the pain to go away, we will live here’

After Israel resumed its bombardment on 1 December, intensely striking areas across the Gaza Strip – including in the south, where most of the enclave’s 2.3 million people have now been corralled – Zaanoun sent this footage of a group of journalists gathering outside Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. “We will stay here,” they sing together in solidarity. “For the pain to go away, we will live here.” At least 57 Palestinian journalists and media workers have been killed since 7 October, in addition to well over 100 aid workers, mostly from the UN agency for Palestine refugees, UNRWA. Zaanoun says the situation has become “catastrophic” and he must now focus on the safety of his wife and their four children. No safe place is left for them, he says.

27 November 2023 - Pause brings some respite

The good news is that Zaanoun, who reported being sick after drinking dirty water in his previous dispatch, is now feeling better after managing to get his hands on some medication. But one of his four children isn’t doing so well, possibly due to the lack of food or the pollution. Zaanoun also had to pull them out of the rubble, for a second time, as the house they were sheltering in was hit by an Israeli strike. That was before the four-day pause in fighting began on Friday, offering some respite. In this clip, Zaanoun shows the Abu al-Ruk family taking advantage of the lull to gather around a fire near the ruins of their home in eastern Khan Younis. Zaanoun says his own family headed there in a rush and has no winter clothes.

23 November 2023 - ‘We couldn’t find anyone to help us’

In his last filing before being struck down sick, due, he believes, to drinking dirty water, Zaanoun filed this report, interviewing Asma Ayad al-Rifi. Last month, she had been ordered, along with many other Palestinians, to evacuate from their neighbourhood in eastern Gaza to an area the Israelis said would be safe. “They were lying,” Al-Rifi says, as she recounts how an Israeli strike led to the roof falling on their heads in the middle of the night. She describes how two women and six children were killed instantly as they became buried in the rubble of the building where they were sheltering, in Nuseirat, in the central Gaza Strip. Al-Rifi had to pull others out, herself, by hand.

16 November 2023 – ‘It’s raining now in Gaza’

In this snapshot, we’ve combined Zaanoun’s photographs with an audio diary from Maha Hussaini, an award-winning journalist and human rights activist in Gaza. Hussaini was forced to leave her home in Gaza City on 13 October. In this voice note, she says that she loves autumn, winter, and the rainy weather that the colder seasons bring. But for the first time in her life she is praying that the rain will stop soon because it is making life harder for the around 1.6 million people in Gaza who have been displaced by Israel’s bombardment and military campaign. Many of the displaced are staying in tents. “I actually cannot imagine their situation now as the rain is pouring down,” Hussaini said. Listen to her full voice note below, and read her recent first-person article: In Gaza, death seems closer than water.

10 November 2023 – ‘Fellow journalists live in the same tent’

Zaanoun and other Palestinian journalists in Gaza continue to cover Israel’s bombardment and near-total siege of the enclave, even as they struggle to cope with the killing of dozens of colleagues and the effects of violence on themselves and their families. They are playing a crucial role by reporting from inside Gaza as Israel continues to bar international journalists who are not embedded with the Israeli military from entering the enclave. Many journalists in Gaza have been displaced from their homes and have sought refuge in hospitals, where they are able to charge their phones, laptops, and cameras, and where they have a better chance of connecting to weak internet signals to send their photos, videos, and stories to the outside world. If the dwindling supply of fuel for back-up generators powering the hospitals runs out, Zaanoun and others could find themselves completely cut off.

6 November 2023 - 'My friend, his family was killed'

Dozens of people were killed in a blast in the densely populated al-Maghazi refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip on Saturday night, including the family of Zaanoun’s friend and fellow photojournalist Mohammed al-Aloul. The blast was one of several in refugee camps in Gaza over the weekend, as the death toll from Israel’s now month-long bombardment and siege of the enclave continues to spiral. The health ministry in Gaza, which is governed by Hamas, said at least 45 people were killed in an Israeli airstrike on al-Maghazi camp. The Israeli military has said it cannot confirm whether it was responsible for the blast. Four of al-Aloul’s five children were killed. His wife and one-year-old son survived.

3 November 2023 – ‘How long will we be removing bodies?’

Zaanoun reports from al-Shati refugee camp in the north of Gaza, where rescuers are digging through the rubble after an Israeli airstrike. It appears too late to find survivors, and they are now just working to retrieve the bodies of some of the children killed. One man tells Zaanoun that seven homes were destroyed and at least 14 children killed. His sister is among the dead. “How long will we be removing bodies in Gaza?” the man asks. “Until when? You have destroyed us, that's enough.”

31 October 2023 - Shut off completely from the world

For roughly 36 hours, between 27 and 29 October, almost all cellular and internet service in the Gaza Strip stopped working amidst heavy Israeli bombardment and the beginning of a ground invasion. The communications blackout made it so people couldn’t call ambulances after airstrikes, speak with relatives, or deliver information about what was happening in the enclave to the outside world. Even as services have been restored, concerns remain over access to information. Israel and Egypt are blocking international journalists from entering Gaza, while at least 26 Palestinian journalists have been killed, most by Israeli airstrikes on the enclave. After communications were restored, Zaanoun was able to resume sending photos.

27 October 2023 - ‘We bid farewell to the family of our colleague’

Zaanoun goes to Al-Aqsa Hospital to share condolences with fellow journalist Wael al-Dahdouh, Al Jazeera’s bureau chief in Gaza, whose family were killed in an Israeli airstrike. He says people have been told to go to the south of the Gaza Strip, but then shows civilians bringing in their injured after a strike hit their homes near the Nasser Hospital in the southern city of Khan Younis. “There is no safe place in the Gaza Strip, and no safe road,” he says.

18 October 2023 - Gaza reels from hospital explosion

Zaanoun photographs the aftermath of the massive blast at al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City on 17 October that killed nearly 500 people and wounded 300, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Thousands of civilians had taken shelter from Israeli bombardment in the facility. Health officials in Gaza said an Israeli airstrike caused the blast. Israeli officials blamed it on a misfired rocket from Palestinian Islamic Jihad – an armed group based in Gaza that has denied any involvement.

17 October 2023 - ‘The smell of death is everywhere’

Before the al-Ahli blast, people in Gaza were already suffering the effects of Israeli bombardment and siege. In addition to those killed and injured, around one million people have been displaced from their homes, out of a population of roughly 2.3 million. Entire neighbourhoods have been reduced to rubble, and first responders and residents in Gaza have scrambled to dig people out from under flattened buildings, often only using their hands.

12 October 2023 - ‘Maybe this is the last message from me’

On the night of 11 October night, shortly after Gaza’s only power station ran out of fuel, and as Israeli artillery thudded nearby, Zaanoun took shelter in Gaza City’s al-Shifa Hospital, the largest medical facility in the enclave. Israel cut off the electricity it provides to the territory after Hamas fighters launched a deadly assault inside Israel on 7 October. Many Gazans have headed to hospitals and UN-run facilities hoping to find safety.

11 October 2023 - ‘Civilians thought they were safe in their homes’

Zaanoun reports on the worsening situation inside Gaza. In his first video for our latest Snapshots series, the Palestinian photojournalist says civilian buildings have been destroyed by Israeli strikes that have killed dozens of people.

For vivid and shocking videos of events, visit: https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/video/2024/02/27/snapshots-palestinian-photographer-captures-life-under-bombardment-gaza

Assessing the Wagner Group’s Aborted Run on Moscow: What Comes Next?

Assessing the Wagner Group’s Aborted Run on Moscow: What Comes Next?

International Crisis Group, 29 June 2023

On 24 June, President Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge in over two decades at Russia’s helm: a mutiny by a mercenary group fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explore the implications for Putin’s rule and Russian foreign policy.

What happened?

On 24 June, mercenaries belonging to the Wagner Group, a private military company founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, advanced to within less than 200km from Moscow before turning back. It was an enormous shock to the nation – one that has left Russians of every stripe and the Kremlin reeling.

For one thing, the challenge came from an unexpected quarter. Prigozhin owed his fortune to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the president has relied on him for some of his dirtiest and toughest fights. Perhaps even more surprising was just how swiftly Wagner was able to seize ground and mount an apparent run on the Kremlin. Prigozhin threw down the gauntlet in a Telegram post on the evening of 23 June. By the next morning, the group’s forces had taken control of the defence ministry’s headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, a city of a million people and a main staging ground for Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, and a column was rumbling through Voronezh, another major regional city, headed toward Moscow. The Wagner forces downed six helicopters and an Ilyushin IL 22M plane, killing at least thirteen people, but faced virtually no resistance on the ground.

Prigozhin vaingloriously called it a “march for justice”. He claimed his blitz was the culmination of a drawn-out feud with Russia’s top military brass, whom he has long claimed are not doing enough for the war effort. This time, however, he went further – accusing them of misleading the president about the basis for the war and how it has unfolded. If he was expecting Putin to take his side, however, that was not on the cards. Putin clearly saw Prigozhin’s power play as a threat to his leadership, dubbing it a “mutiny” and a “betrayal”. The Russian leader’s angry televised speech on the morning of 24 June contrasted starkly with his carefully curated, confident appearances since launching Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. In it, Putin vowed that those involved would be punished.

By all accounts, Prigozhin and the Kremlin were locked in a high-stakes negotiation up until the point of no return – when Wagner’s troops were poised to enter Moscow, where security forces had reportedly set up defences. They cut a deal to head off a worse crisis. The Kremlin announced on the evening of 24 June that Putin’s ally, Belarussian President Aleksandr Lukashenka, had brokered an agreement under which Prigozhin won amnesty for Wagner personnel who had joined the insurrection, the opportunity to join the regular army for those who had not and exile for himself to Belarus.

The Kremlin’s account of the deal left more questions than answers. Whatever Putin’s motives, giving Lukashenka credit for saving the day strains credulity and would seem an embarrassing narrative for the Russian leader. It suggests a level of weakness and lack of options on the latter’s part. It may never be clear who actually brokered the deal or what kind of threats were paired with the ostensible reprieve Prigozhin was granted. In a sign of one possible lever Putin held over Prigozhin, in the wake of the upheaval the Russian president admitted for the first time that the state had long been funding Wagner and hinted that the group may have misappropriated money. It seems difficult to fathom that, with Putin’s track record of silencing his enemies, anyone he has branded a traitor will be able to live out their days in peace. But it is also possible that the Kremlin may value or fear Prigozhin and his fighters sufficiently to let them survive. On 27 June, Lukashenka confirmed that Prigozhin was in Belarus but that Wagner’s mercenaries are still at their bases in Russia and Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine.

What spurred Prigozhin to take such dramatic action?

Prigozhin said his goal was to prevent Wagner’s disbanding: revealing his actions as those of a man cornered, gambling it all. Prigozhin had been sparring publicly (and increasingly belligerently) with Russia’s military leadership for months, claiming that they had provided Wagner with insufficient weaponry and were incompetent in their planning and operations. He may have hoped to convince Putin – who had been silent during the months of infighting – to back him against Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov. It was a fight he was losing: a 1 July deadline loomed on a new defence ministry order, signed by Putin, requiring all volunteers (that is, fighters not already affiliated with government forces) to sign contracts with the military. This order would have essentially folded Wagner into the army’s regular chain of command.

On the evening of his uprising, Prigozhin said he was spurred to take control of Rostov after Russian missiles struck a Wagner base in Russian-occupied Ukraine. But it is unlikely that an operation on the scale of the 23 June march was planned in a day. Questions linger about how such a shrewd court navigator was pushed to such extreme action: did he lose Putin’s ear? Did he feel he had support from other quarters? Did he harbour bigger ambitions?

How did Prigozhin morph from Putin’s fixer into his biggest problem?

Over the last ten years, Prigozhin – a petty criminal turned successful caterer under Putin’s patronage (earning him the nickname “Putin’s chef”) – has transformed himself into the go-to person for operations that the Kremlin preferred to disavow. In 2013, he ran the Internet Research Agency, a so-called troll farm based in St. Petersburg that employed hundreds of people to engage in influence operations online, including in the United States in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election. Then, in 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea and sponsored a revolt in eastern Ukraine, fighters under his command – the precursor to Wagner – battled the Ukrainian army while the Kremlin denied involvement.

The Wagner Group came into its own over the course of Russia’s military intervention in Syria starting in 2015. There again, as Putin sought to avoid an unpopular deployment of Russian soldiers that risked evoking the Soviet Union’s bloody, ignominious war in Afghanistan, Moscow relied on Wagner’s ground forces to fight alongside Syrian and Iranian troops on the Syrian regime’s behalf, supported by a Russian air campaign. As Russia sought to expand its influence in Africa, Wagner contracted its services to autocrats facing down rebellion and other opposition in the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, Mozambique and Sudan, sometimes accepting stakes in mines and other businesses as payment.

But nowhere was Prigozhin clearer in demonstrating his utility to Putin than during the most recent phase of operations in Ukraine. As the regular Russian army met stiff Ukrainian resistance, dashing the Kremlin’s expectations of a quick “special military operation” to topple the government in Kyiv, Wagner entered the scene, quickly earning a reputation for tenacity and barbarity. Recruiting widely, including from among convicts, Prigozhin took the lead in the most grinding battle to date, for the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut. The town eventually succumbed to Russian control, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives and Bakhmut’s utter devastation.

As Prigozhin’s importance to the Russian war effort grew, so did his public profile. Prigozhin has both cultivated and exploited his notoriety, bypassing state-controlled media to reach Russians on social media. With unvarnished tirades accusing the Russian military of incompetence and corruption, Prigozhin built his own brand as a patriot. In so doing, he became the face of a new faction in Russia, the so-called party of war, who blame the military’s lack of stomach for a full-fledged fight, including martial law and widespread mobilisation, for Russia becoming bogged down in Ukraine. By arguing not for peace, but for more forceful action in the face of Russia’s military setbacks in Ukraine, he staked out a position to the right of Putin.

What are the implications for Putin’s grip on power in Russia?

Putin and his propagandists will be hard pressed to turn the Wagner uprising to his advantage. While the failure of Russia’s military to secure a quick victory in Ukraine eroded the perception of its strength, this crisis has raised questions about the very stability of Putin’s rule.

One of the pillars of this stability is Putin’s presumed control of Russia’s strongmen and oligarchs, even as they compete for his czar-like favour. The scale of Prigozhin’s challenge seems both to shatter that narrative and to underscore the difficulties of governing Russia through a matrix of ad hoc, non-transparent and highly personal relationships. Indeed, the Kremlin’s longstanding acceptance of Prigozhin’s verbal attacks on the regular army (something few others could have gotten away with) may be part of the reason the Russian security system failed to predict Wagner’s insurrection. It may also have contributed to the security forces’ failure to do much to prevent Prigozhin’s men from thundering toward the capital. Perhaps some were unsure, even after Putin’s 24 June statement, that Prigozhin was not somehow still operating under Kremlin orders.

Perhaps even more concerning for Putin are the alternative explanations. Some Russian troops may have been supportive of Wagner’s project or frustrated enough with the system to welcome anyone seeming to defy it. Russian security services were aware of Prigozhin’s plans, according to The New York Times, which cited U.S. intelligence sources. If so, those in the know may have discounted the plans as unlikely to come to fruition, but some may have been complicit. In a sign that support for Prigozhin may have been broader than his own mercenaries, Russia has reportedly detained the military’s air and space force commander, Sergei Surovikin. None of this bodes well for Putin or the Kremlin.

As long as Prigozhin was seen as the Kremlin’s man, his growing popularity arguably bolstered Putin’s. Prigozhin’s macho, profanity-laced image-making took a page from Putin’s own playbook. When he first came into the limelight, Putin’s swagger – he famously threatened to kill terrorists in “outhouses” – had wide appeal. The president fashioned a persona as a tough-talking man of the people. But more than two decades on, in contrast to Prigozhin, Putin appears out of touch. Critics have disparaged him as a grandpa hiding in a bunker, while Prigozhin appears in social media videos alongside his soldiers, backlit by the horrors of war. In one case he is standing in a field of corpses.

How Putin responds in the coming days and weeks to this challenge may prove pivotal for his grip on power. More than any other event since 2012, when he reclaimed the Kremlin from Dmitry Medvedev’s placeholder presidency, the past week’s chaotic events have focused minds on who and what might follow him should he relinquish his role. Russian social media channels were rife with rumours as the political elite grappled with the possible fallout. This chatter even included speculation that Putin might not stand or might designate a successor ahead of the 2024 presidential election (a prospect suggested by a figure as prominent as Nezavisimaya Gazeta editor-in-chief Konstantin Remchukov).

The days following the end of Prigozhin’s march saw the Kremlin engaged in damage control. After Putin’s 24 June speech, and no doubt at the Kremlin’s behest, regional leaders recorded messages of support. In a televised appearance in Red Square before his security forces, Putin tried to project strength, thanking the military for heroically halting a civil war – though it is unclear that they did much, if anything, toward that end. He also warned of consequences for officials who had helped Prigozhin enrich himself at Russia’s expense.

As for what lies ahead, Putin could well pursue a mix of coercive measures intended to ensure the loyalty of Russia’s political and security elite (such as Surovikin’s reported detention, if true) and personnel changes. Replacements in the defence ministry’s upper echelons would be an obvious way for Putin to at least appear to address security failings and a darkening public mood. Wagner’s rebellion put military shortcomings front and centre. Since May, the Russian public has been anxiously watching the war come ever closer to home. Manifestations include incursions across the border from Ukraine, a drone attack on the Kremlin and Ukrainian artillery fire forcing the evacuation of Shebekino, a town of 40,000. Against this backdrop, one rumour circulating in Moscow holds that Alexei Dyumin, the head of the Tula region who was once Putin’s bodyguard and then a deputy defence minister, could succeed Shoigu as defence minister. Thus far, however, the palace intrigue has remained opaque to outsiders. While Shoigu appeared at a meeting Putin held with his top brass on Tuesday, General Gerasimov has not been seen in public since the mutiny.

The challenge Putin is facing highlights the risks that a long war of attrition with Ukraine poses to his rule. But that is unlikely to mean that Putin will suddenly sue for peace. The president has staked his reputation on winning this conflict and has shown no sign – despite the high casualty counts and economic costs – of backing down from his goal of subjugating Ukraine. That the challenge cannot easily be blamed on Western meddling, but instead emanates from voices even more hawkish than his own, will play into his calculations. The higher probability is that he instead doubles down on military victory, veering onto a more radical path ironically charted by Prigozhin and others in the so-called party of war.

How will these events affect Russian external relations and power projection?

As Putin faced the toughest challenge to his rule yet, few friends and allies reached out to offer support. Indeed, the attitude among partners and adversaries alike was mainly to stay out of the fray.

The slow trickle of outreach to the Kremlin from world leaders shows a Putin perhaps more isolated than before, at least during his momentary loss of control. From among the neighbours that once formed part of the Soviet Union, he spoke only with the heads of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, as well as Belarus’ Lukashenka. Farther afield, only Türkiye, Iran and Qatar extended offers of support to the Kremlin as events unfolded.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said he was ready to help seek a “peaceful resolution” and spoke of the importance of “acting with common sense”. Notably, China – which Putin has increasingly relied on as a trade partner and ally in the UN Security Council – waited until Prigozhin had turned his men around to weigh in. Eventually, Beijing reaffirmed its support for Russia as a “friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic partner”. But even then, the outreach did not come from Chinese President Xi Jinping, who had not spoken with Putin at the time of writing.

All of this suggests that the Kremlin will feel more pressure than ever to maintain influence in what it views as its backyard and to deal on an equal footing with key trade and political partners, namely China and Türkiye. Despite the swiftness with which the Kremlin averted a larger upheaval, the uprising will have planted seeds of doubt about Russia’s future and encourage more hedging in global affairs. That said, any foreign policy shifts are likely to be slow and subtle. Countries which have maintained trade and political ties with Russia, despite Western efforts to peel off support for Putin, have their reasons for doing so and are unlikely to shift policies in a day.

Amid the turmoil, Ukraine’s Western backers kept quiet to avoid giving Moscow cause to claim they were involved. In the aftermath, however, they were more forthcoming. U.S. President Joe Biden told the press that Putin had become a “bit of a pariah” and had been weakened by the clash with Wagner. European leaders, from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, said the events had exposed the fissures in Putin’s grip on power. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas went a step further, saying they showed cracks in Russia’s resolve in its war with Ukraine. But Western leaders were still trying to parse the implications as they met for an EU summit in Brussels on 29 June.

What next for Wagner?

With Wagner’s future hanging in the balance, so, too, is its role as an instrument of Russian power in the far-flung regions where it operates. The exodus of Prigozhin and those who may follow him to Belarus, coupled with the demand that the rest of Wagner go home or join the army, seems likely to be the death knell for Wagner’s engagement as an independent fighting force in Ukraine.

But it is unclear whether the same instructions will apply to Wagner forces in other conflict arenas. There, the group has been a channel for Russian power projection, including in resource-rich countries that have long suffered instability and where the influence of former colonial powers is on the wane. On 26 June, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Wagner’s actions in Russia will not affect its operations in Africa.

He added that the work of Wagner’s “military instructors” in the Central African Republic and Mali (both of which rely heavily on the group as a security provider) will continue, perhaps from a new base in Belarus. But, in a sign that Moscow’s purges may reach further, on 27 June, the Saudi-owned news channel Al-Hadath reported that three high-ranking Wagner Group commanders were detained at Syria’s Khmeimim air base, and that police visited Wagner headquarters in the cities of Damascus, Deir al-Zour and Hama.

How will the aftermath of Wagner’s rebellion affect Ukraine’s counteroffensive?

The timing of Prigozhin’s putsch could not have been better for Kyiv, as Ukrainian forces probe for vulnerabilities along the 1,000km front in their counteroffensive, launched in late May. Battle-weary troops, who have thus made only incremental progress, could only have welcomed news that some of the most vicious forces in the enemy’s ranks were facing off with their would-be brothers in arms on Russian soil.

There were other benefits for Ukraine besides. By calling into question Russia’s internal stability, Prigozhin’s march undermined the Kremlin’s narrative that it can easily outlast Ukraine’s military capacity and the will of Kyiv’s Western supporters. “Russia long masked its weaknesses with propaganda”, wrote President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Telegram. “But now the chaos has gotten too big to cover it in lies”. The Russian infighting also cast Ukraine’s costly, months-long defence of Bakhmut – a town of questionable strategic importance – in a more favourable light. Ukraine has said its largely symbolic stand would help exhaust Russia’s fighting strength. Now it seems also to have fuelled the internecine conflict between Wagner and the Russian military.

Ukraine will be hoping the turmoil translates into gaps in Russia’s deeply dug defensive lines, where Wagner forces played a critical role even after redeploying from Bakhmut to other sectors of the front, and corresponding opportunities to advance. Perhaps seeking to create the impression of momentum as events unfolded in Moscow, Ukrainian forces announced they had recaptured a tenth settlement from Russia and established a foothold on the Russian-controlled left bank of the Dnipro river across from the city of Kherson. Zelenskyy boasted on Telegram on the evening of 26 June that Ukrainian forces had advanced in all areas along the front.

Ukraine also will be seeking to capitalise on the humiliating episode for Putin in its efforts to drum up international support. Debates among Ukraine’s Western backers on the future of their support for Ukraine will be at the top of the agenda as leaders meet at the NATO summit on 11-12 July. These countries will discuss how much they are willing to commit to Ukraine – and for how long – as the fighting rages. The allies are likely to be at least somewhat divided. Some, particularly Ukraine’s strongest backers in the Baltic states and Poland, will argue that Putin’s seeming retreat in the face of Prigozhin’s threat makes the case for pushing harder. Others could highlight concerns about the risks of instability in Russia as a reason to eschew support that could lead to escalation.

Whether or not it bears on Western support under consideration, the prospect of escalation is real. Ukrainians now are likely to perceive that they have every reason to push and probe for further weakness on the Russian side – looking to see what gains they can make on the battlefield, as Russian soldiers absorb the past week’s news, and hoping that Prigozhin’s bold move fuels further unrest in Russia. At the same time, Putin, needing to repair his damaged reputation, may seek ways to up the temperature in Ukraine, for instance, ramping up missile attacks in an effort to demonstrate strength at home. If that happens, the recent turmoil in Russia could push the prospect of a negotiated solution even farther away than it was before.