With Trump’s inauguration, the EU and Turkey must finally get serious about security cooperation
By Galip Dalay, Chatham House, 06 January 2025
Trump’s commitment to NATO is questionable. The EU cannot hope to deter Russia effectively without closer cooperation with Ankara.
With Donald Trump’s forthcoming inauguration, the question of the future of the European security order has become more pressing – and so has the need for clarity about Turkey’s place and role within that order. In this respect, Trump’s return might provide much needed impetus for the European Union (EU) and Turkey to finally engage in more serious dialogues on European security and on broader foreign and security policy cooperation.
Europe’s security environment has undergone a radical transformation in recent years. After the Ukraine war, the once prevalent idea of a security order that included Russia has been replaced by one that places Moscow firmly in the adversary camp. Similarly, the Gaza war, and the downfall of Syria’s Assad regime have fundamentally changed the geopolitics of the European neighbourhood, both in the East and South.
Such changes necessitate a fresh approach that treats European security in the broader sense, bridging the gap between EU and non-EU European NATO member states. A structured foreign and security dialogue between Turkey, the UK, Norway and the EU is essential. Going forward, this dialogue should also aim to include non-EU and non-NATO European states such as Ukraine.
For European security, Russia remains the most immediate threat, and Europe cannot afford to have a security order that is set against Moscow and excludes Turkey simultaneously. The Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and Middle East are not separate zones in Russian-Western confrontation. Rather, they are largely a single space. And Turkey straddles all these regions.
Positive steps
At the strategic level, there have recently been some positive steps in Turkey–European relations. In October, Berlin approved a large-scale package of arms exports to Ankara, including materials for the modernization of Turkish submarines and frigates.
In August the EU invited Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the Gymnich meeting…illustrating an atmospheric change in relations.
In November, after a long delay, Berlin also finally removed its veto against the sale of Eurofighter jets to Turkey. Likewise, de-escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean and recent improvements in Turkish–Greek relations have provided a more conducive environment for foreign and security policy dialogue.
The Eastern Mediterranean crisis had become arguably the thorniest foreign policy issue between the EU and Turkey, pitting Ankara against Athens, Nicosia and Paris. But relations have steadily improved, and in August the EU invited Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the Gymnich meeting – an informal gathering of the EU foreign ministers held every six months – illustrating an atmospheric change in relations.
Russia relations
Despite these relatively positive developments, major issues remain that might test and potentially prevent any meaningful foreign and security policy dialogue.
First is how the EU and Turkey approach great power competition, not least Russia and China. For Europe, Russia is a more immediate and pressing concern, not least when it comes to the Ukraine war.
Disclaimer
Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff or CEMAS Board.